Hans Moravec(1948–) is
well-known in the computer science community as the long-time head of Carnegie
Mellon University's Robotics Institute and an unashamed techno logical
optimist.
For the last twenty-five years, he has studied and produced
artificially intelligent robots at the CMU lab, where he is still an adjunct
faculty member.
Moravec spent almost 10 years as a research assistant at
Stanford University's groundbreaking Artificial Intelligence Lab before coming
to Carnegie Mellon.
Moravec is also noted for his paradox, which states that,
contrary to popular belief, it is simple to program high-level thinking skills
into robots—as with chess or Jeopardy!—but difficult to transmit sensorimo tor
agility.
Human sensory and motor abilities have developed over
millions of years and seem to be easy, despite their complexity.
Higher-order cognitive abilities, on the other hand, are the
result of more recent cultural development.
Geometry, stock market research, and petroleum engineering
are examples of disciplines that are difficult for people to learn but easier
for robots to learn.
"The basic lesson of thirty-five years of AI research
is that the hard issues are simple, and the easy ones are hard," writes
Steven Pinker of Moravec's scientific career.
Moravec built his first toy robot out of scrap metal when he
was eleven years old, and his light-following electronic turtle and a robot
operated by punched paper tape earned him two high school science fair honors.
He proposed a Ship of Theseus-like analogy for the viability
of artificial brains while still in high school.
Consider replacing a person's human neurons one by one with
precisely manufactured equivalents, he said.
When do you think human awareness will vanish? Is anybody
going to notice? Is it possible to establish that the person is no longer
human? Later in his career, Moravec would suggest that human knowledge and
training might be broken down in the same manner, into subtasks that machine
intelligences could take over.
Moravec's master's thesis focused on the development of a
computer language for artificial intelligence, while his PhD research focused
on the development of a robot that could navigate obstacle courses utilizing
spatial representation methods.
The area of interest (ROI) in a scene was identified by
these robot vision systems.
Moravec's early computer vision robots were extremely
sluggish by today's standards, taking around five hours to go from one half of
the facility to the other.
To measure distance and develop an internal picture of
physical impediments in the room, a remote computer carefully analysed
continuous video-camera images recorded by the robot from various angles.
Moravec finally developed 3D occupancy grid technology,
which allowed a robot to create an awareness of a cluttered area in a matter of
seconds.
Moravec's lab took on a new challenge by converting a
Pontiac TransSport minivan into one of the world's first road-ready autonomous
cars.
The self-driving minivan reached speeds of up to 60 miles
per hour.
DANTE II, a robot capable of going inside the crater of an
active volcano on Mount Spurr in Alaska, was also constructed by the CMU
Robotics Institute.
While DANTE II's immediate aim was to sample harmful
fumarole gases, a job too perilous for humans, it was also planned to
demonstrate technologies for robotic expeditions to distant worlds.
The volcanic explorer robot used artificial intelligence to
navigate the perilous, boulder-strewn terrain on its own.
Because such rovers produced so much visual and other
sensory data that had to be analyzed and managed, Moravec believes that
experience with mobile robots spurred the development of powerful artificial
intelligence and computer vision methods.
For the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA), Moravec's team built fractal branching ultra-dexterous robots
("Bush robots") in the 1990s.
These robots, which were proposed but never produced due to
the lack of necessary manufacturing technologies, comprised of a branching
hierarchy of dynamic articulated limbs, starting with a main trunk and
splitting down into smaller branches.
As a result, the Bush robot would have "hands" at
all scales, from macroscopic to tiny.
The tiniest fingers would be nanoscale in size, allowing
them to grip very tiny objects.
Moravec said the robot would need autonomy and depend on
artificial intelligence agents scattered throughout the robot's limbs and
branches because to the intricacy of manipulating millions of fingers in real
time.
He believed that the robots may be made entirely of carbon
nanotube material, employing the quick prototyping technology known as 3D
printers.
Moravec believes that artificial intelligence will have a
significant influence on human civilization.
To stress the role of AI in change, he coined the concept of
the "landscape of human capability," which physicist Max Tegmark has
later converted into a graphic depiction.
Moravec's picture depicts a three-dimensional environment in
which greater altitudes reflect more challenging jobs in terms of human
difficulty.
The point where the swelling waters meet the shore reflects
the line where robots and humans both struggle with the same duties.
Art, science, and literature are now beyond of grasp for an
AI, but the sea has already defeated mathematics, chess, and the game Go.
Language translation, autonomous driving, and financial
investment are all on the horizon.
More controversially, in two popular books, Mind Children
(1988) and Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind (1989), Moravec engaged in
future conjecture based on what he understood of developments in artificial
intelligence research (1999).
In 2040, he said, human intellect will be surpassed by
machine intelligence, and the human species would go extinct.
Moravec evaluated the functional equivalence between 50,000
million instructions per second (50,000 MIPS) of computer power and a gram of
brain tissue and came up with this figure.
He calculated that home computers in the early 2000s equaled
only an insect's nervous system, but that if processing power doubled every
eighteen months, 350 million years of human intellect development could be
reduced to just 35 years of artificial intelligence advancement.
He estimated that a hundred million MIPS would be required
to create human-like universal robots.
Moravec refers to these sophisticated robots as our
"mind children" in the year 2040.
Humans, he claims, will devise techniques to delay
biological civilization's final demise.
Moravec, for example, was the first to anticipate what is
now known as universal basic income, which is delivered by benign artificial
superintelligences.
In a completely automated society, a basic income system
would provide monthly cash payments to all individuals without any type of
employment requirement.
Moravec is more concerned about the idea of a renegade
automated corporation breaking its programming and refusing to pay taxes into
the human cradle-to-grave social security system than he is about technological
unemployment.
Nonetheless, he predicts that these "wild"
intelligences will eventually control the universe.
Moravec has said that his books Mind Children and Robot may
have had a direct impact on the last third of Stanley Kubrick's original screenplay
for A.I. Artificial Intelligence (later filmed by Steven Spielberg).
Moravecs, on the other hand, are self-replicating devices in
the science fiction books Ilium and Olympos.
Moravec defended the same physical fundamentalism he
expressed in his high school thoughts throughout his life.
He contends in his most transhumanist publications that the
only way for humans to stay up with machine intelligences is to merge with them
by replacing sluggish human cerebral tissue with artificial neural networks
controlled by super-fast algorithms.
In his publications, Moravec has blended the ideas of
artificial intelligence with virtual reality simulation.
He's come up with four scenarios for the development of
consciousness.
(1) human brains in the physical world,
(2) a programmed AI
implanted in a physical robot,
(3) a human brain immersed in a virtual reality
simulation, and
(4) an AI functioning inside the boundaries of virtual reality
All of them are equally credible depictions of reality, and they are as
"real" as we believe them to be.
Moravec is the creator and chief scientist of the
Pittsburgh-based Seegrid Corporation, which makes autonomous Robotic Industrial
Trucks that can navigate warehouses and factories without the usage of
automated guided vehicle systems.
A human trainer physically pushes Seegrid's vehicles through
a new facility once.
The robot conducts the rest of the job, determining the most
efficient and safe pathways for future journeys, while the trainer stops at the
appropriate spots for the truck to be loaded and unloaded.
Seegrid VGVs have transported over two million production
miles and eight billion pounds of merchandise for DHL, Whirlpool, and Amazon.
Moravec was born in the Austrian town of Kautzen.
During World War II, his father was a Czech engineer who
sold electrical products.
When the Russians invaded Czechoslovakia in 1944, the family
moved to Austria.
In 1953, his family relocated to Canada, where he now
resides.
Moravec earned a bachelor's degree in mathematics from
Acadia University in Nova Scotia, a master's degree in computer science from
the University of Western Ontario, and a doctorate from Stanford University,
where he worked with John McCarthy and Tom Binford on his thesis.
The Office of Naval Study, the Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency, and NASA have all supported his research.
Elon Musk (1971–) is an American businessman and inventor.
Elon Musk is an engineer, entrepreneur, and inventor who was
born in South Africa.
He is a dual citizen of South Africa, Canada, and the United
States, and resides in California.
Musk is widely regarded as one of the most prominent
inventors and engineers of the twenty-first century, as well as an important
influencer and contributor to the development of artificial intelligence.
Despite his controversial personality, Musk is widely
regarded as one of the most prominent inventors and engineers of the
twenty-first century and an important influencer and contributor to the
development of artificial intelligence.
Musk's business instincts and remarkable technological
talent were evident from an early age.
By the age of 10, he had self-taught himself how program
computers, and by the age of twelve, he had produced a video game and sold the
source code to a computer maga zine.
Musk has included allusions to some of his favorite novels
in SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket launch and Tesla's software since he was a
youngster.
Musk's official schooling was centered on economics and
physics rather than engineering, interests that are mirrored in his subsequent
work, such as his efforts in renewable energy and space exploration.
He began his education at Queen's University in Canada, but
later transferred to the University of Pennsylvania, where he earned bachelor's
degrees in Economics and Physics.
Musk barely stayed at Stanford University for two days to
seek a PhD in energy physics before departing to start his first firm, Zip2,
with his brother Kimbal Musk.
Musk has started or cofounded many firms, including three
different billion-dollar enterprises: SpaceX, Tesla, and PayPal, all driven by
his diverse interests and goals.
• Zip2 was a web software business that was eventually
purchased by Compaq.
• X.com: an online bank that merged with PayPal to become
the online payments corporation PayPal.
• Tesla, Inc.: an electric car and solar panel maker •
SpaceX: a commercial aircraft manufacturer and space transportation services
provider (via its subsidiarity SolarCity) • Neuralink: a neurotechnology
startup focusing on brain-computer connections • The Boring Business: an
infrastructure and tunnel construction corporation • OpenAI: a nonprofit AI
research company focused on the promotion and development of friendly AI Musk
is a supporter of environmentally friendly energy and consumption.
Concerns over the planet's future habitability prompted him
to investigate the potential of establishing a self-sustaining human colony on
Mars.
Other projects include the Hyperloop, a high-speed
transportation system, and the Musk electric jet, a jet-powered supersonic
electric aircraft.
Musk sat on President Donald Trump's Strategy and Policy
Forum and Manufacturing Jobs Initiative for a short time before stepping out
when the US withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Musk launched the Musk Foundation in 2002, which funds and
supports research and activism in the domains of renewable energy, human space
exploration, pediatric research, and science and engineering education.
Musk's effect on AI is significant, despite his best-known
work with Tesla and SpaceX, as well as his contentious social media
pronouncements.
In 2015, Musk cofounded the charity OpenAI with the
objective of creating and supporting "friendly AI," or AI that is
created, deployed, and utilized in a manner that benefits mankind as a whole.
OpenAI's objective is to make AI open and accessible to the
general public, reducing the risks of AI being controlled by a few privileged
people.
OpenAI is especially concerned about the possibility of
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which is broadly defined as AI capable
of human-level (or greater) performance on any intellectual task, and ensuring
that any such AGI is developed responsibly, transparently, and distributed
evenly and openly.
OpenAI has had its own successes in taking AI to new levels
while staying true to its goals of keeping AI friendly and open.
In June of 2018, a team of OpenAI-built robots defeated a
human team in the video game Dota 2, a feat that could only be accomplished
through robot teamwork and collaboration.
Bill Gates, a cofounder of Microsoft, praised the
achievement on Twitter, calling it "a huge milestone in advancing
artificial intelligence" (@BillGates, June 26, 2018).
Musk resigned away from the OpenAI board in February 2018 to
prevent any conflicts of interest while Tesla advanced its AI work for
autonomous driving.
Musk became the CEO of Tesla in 2008 after cofounding the
company in 2003 as an investor.
Musk was the chairman of Tesla's board of directors until
2018, when he stepped down as part of a deal with the US Securities and
Exchange Commission over Musk's false claims about taking the company private.
Tesla produces electric automobiles with self-driving
capabilities.
Tesla Grohmann Automation and Solar City, two of its
subsidiaries, offer relevant automotive technology and manufacturing services
and solar energy services, respectively.
Tesla, according to Musk, will reach Level 5 autonomous
driving capabilities in 2019, as defined by the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration's (NHTSA) five levels of autonomous driving.
Tes la's aggressive development with autonomous driving has
influenced conventional car makers' attitudes toward electric cars and
autonomous driving, and prompted a congressional assessment of how and when the
technology should be regulated.
Musk is widely credited as a key influencer in moving the
automotive industry toward autonomous driving, highlighting the benefits of
autonomous vehicles (including reduced fatalities in vehicle crashes, increased
worker productivity, increased transportation efficiency, and job creation) and
demonstrating that the technology is achievable in the near term.
Tesla's autonomous driving code has been created and
enhanced under the guidance of Musk and Tesla's Director of AI, Andrej Karpathy
(Autopilot).
The computer vision analysis used by Tesla, which includes
an array of cameras on each car and real-time image processing, enables the
system to make real-time observations and predictions.
The cameras, as well as other exterior and internal sensors,
capture a large quantity of data, which is evaluated and utilized to improve
Autopilot programming.
Tesla is the only autonomous car maker that is opposed to
the LIDAR laser sensor (an acronym for light detection and ranging).
Tesla uses cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors instead.
Though academics and manufacturers disagree on whether LIDAR
is required for fully autonomous driving, the high cost of LIDAR has limited
Tesla's rivals' ability to produce and sell vehicles at a pricing range that
allows a large number of cars on the road to gather data.
Tesla is creating its own AI hardware in addition to its AI
programming.
Musk stated in late 2017 that Tesla is building its own
silicon for artificial-intelligence calculations, allowing the company to
construct its own AI processors rather than depending on third-party sources
like Nvidia.
Tesla's AI progress in autonomous driving has been marred by
setbacks.
Tesla has consistently missed self-imposed deadlines, and
serious accidents have been blamed on flaws in the vehicle's Autopilot mode,
including a non-injury accident in 2018, in which the vehicle failed to detect
a parked firetruck on a California freeway, and a fatal accident in 2018, in
which the vehicle failed to detect a pedestrian outside a crosswalk.
Neuralink was established by Musk in 2016.
With the stated objective of helping humans to keep up with
AI breakthroughs, Neuralink is focused on creating devices that can be
implanted into the human brain to better facilitate communication between the
brain and software.
Musk has characterized the gadgets as a more efficient
interface with computer equipment, while people now operate things with their
fingertips and voice commands, directives would instead come straight from the
brain.
Though Musk has made major advances to AI, his
pronouncements regarding the risks linked with AI have been apocalyptic.
Musk has called AI "humanity's greatest existential
danger" and "the greatest peril we face as a civilisation"
(McFarland 2014).
(Morris 2017).
He cautions against the perils of power concentration, a
lack of independent control, and a competitive rush to acceptance without
appropriate analysis of the repercussions.
While Musk has used colorful terminology such as
"summoning the devil" (McFarland 2014) and depictions of cyborg
overlords, he has also warned of more immediate and realistic concerns such as
job losses and AI-driven misinformation campaigns.
Though Musk's statements might come out as alarmist, many
important and well-respected figures, including as Microsoft cofounder Bill
Gates, Swedish-American scientist Max Tegmark, and the late theoretical
physicist Stephen Hawking, share his concern.
Furthermore, Musk does not call for the cessation of AI
research.
Instead, Musk supports for responsible AI development and
regulation, including the formation of a Congressional committee to spend years
studying AI with the goal of better understanding the technology and its
hazards before establishing suitable legal limits.
~ Jai Krishna Ponnappan
Find Jai on Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram
You may also want to read more about Artificial Intelligence here.
See also:
Superintelligence; Technological Singularity; Workplace Automation.
References & Further Reading:
Moravec, Hans. 1988. Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Moravec, Hans. 1999. Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Moravec, Hans. 2003. “Robots, After All.” Communications of the ACM 46, no. 10 (October): 90–97.
Pinker, Steven. 2007. The Language Instinct: How the Mind Creates Language. New York: Harper.
